‘Rust’ movie trailer: See Alec Baldwin as a Western outlaw
Alec Baldwin’s Western drama “Rust” is out May 2.
Hollywood loves a good comeback story.
But what about real-life rebounds? That, it turns out, is an iffier proposition and one that’s about to be tested by three bold-faced names: Alec Baldwin, Johnny Depp and Will Smith.
All three were at different points lead players in the cultural zeitgeist. And all three lost that role, admittedly for vastly different offenses that nonetheless had the same career-dinging effect. Baldwin after Halyna Hutchins was fatally shot with a gun he held on the set of “Rust” in 2021, Depp after a protracted and tawdry 2022 lawsuit with his ex Amber Heard and Smith after slapping Chris Rock at the 2022 Oscars.
Can this trio win back the hearts and wallets of fans with their new projects? Will Hollywood’s gatekeepers stand ready with open arms?
Not surprisingly, the latter is highly dependent on the former, industry experts say. If you can still turn a buck with your talents, watch your Tinseltown dance card fill up.
“If people have a loyal fan base, they’ll always get a second and even third shot,” says Stacy Jones, CEO of pop culture marketing firm Hollywood Branded. “Look at Robert Downey, Jr. His drug addiction crashed his career more than 20 years ago. And now..?”
Well, now the “Ironman” star’s movies have grossed more than $14 billion and he has a best supporting actor Oscar for “Oppenheimer.” Point taken.
A rebound for Depp, Smith and Baldwin depends on a shifting calculus
So is that sort of about-face a possibility for Baldwin, Depp and Smith? Experts say the calculus for rebounding from scandal involves factors such as what you did, who you did it to, and to what degree people still care.
“If you think about MeToo and cancel culture and people being publicly shamed, while that was strong in recent years, for me the question is, is that sentiment as strong today?” says Todd Boyd, who holds the Katherine and Frank Price Endowed Chair for the Study of Race and Popular Culture at the University of Southern California.
For Michael Schulman, author of “Oscar Wars: A History of Hollywood in Gold, Sweat and Tears,” fans are the critical factor.
“Stars come back to the extent that they’re profitable,” he says. He laughs, adding, “I hope you can hear the cynicism.”
One thing that could help a comeback is playing to your scandalous side, Schulman says. His examples include Rob Lowe, who, after an ’80s sex tape scandal, won back fans by playing a sleazy villain in the comedy “Wayne’s World.” Even Baldwin himself, who was in the tabloids for his raucous 2002 divorce from Kim Basinger and then scored a hit by playing a hilariously morals-free executive in the NBC comedy, “30 Rock.”
Schulman, who keeps a keen eye on Hollywood for The New Yorker, did a 2021 piece for the magazine called “Fatty Arbuckle and the Birth of the Celebrity Scandal,” about the silent movie star who was acquitted of rape and murder in the 1920s and never regained his popularity. Today, more than a century later, Schulman says social media connects fans more intensely to celebrities, creating a bond that can help launch a comeback.
“Each of these three stars has a fan base on their side,” he says. “Will’s slap for many was just a man standing up for his wife. With Alec, there’s a widespread sense he shouldn’t even have been charged. And Johnny had wide online support during that trial. Studios will take the temperature, and when needed can reintroduce people with the help of marketing and publicity.”
A look at what’s coming up for Alec Baldwin and Johnny Depp
Let’s open our inquiry into these three comeback cases by looking at what each is working on and whether these roles could prove enough to reignite their personal spotlights.
For Baldwin, whose Western “Rust” debuted in theaters and video on demand May 2 to poor sales, his new output consists of playing himself in the TLC reality series “The Baldwins.”
Although it’s an attempt to showcase the actor as a loveable dad to his brood of seven, the series hasn’t made a mark. In fact, unless Baldwin, whose standout movies include “Glengarry Glen Ross” and “The Hunt for Red October,” returns with a dramatic flourish, his relaunch could be on permanent hold, experts say.
“Ironically, if Alec is guilty of anything it’s coming back as a cringeworthy dad,” says Schulman. “It’s a naked attempt at rebranding. Why not come back as an actor?”
Baldwin is starring in “Hollywood Heist” with Nick Cannon, with Deadline reporting the film is being introduced to buyers in Cannes. But USC’s Boyd argues that Baldwin’s name was never as lofty in the culture as Depp or Smith, and that could hurt his chances of a comeback. “He’s just not as relevant anymore,” he says.
The public seems to agree, says Jones. “Even if ‘The Baldwins’ is atrocious, you should have had a lot of haters tuning in,” she says. “But the public response was indifferent.”
Depp’s offense was not an on-set tragedy but rather an incendiary 2022 court battle with his actress ex wife, who had accused him of being abusive during their relationship. He sued her for damaging his reputation, and won.
Depp is currently filming “Day Drinker,” a thriller with Penelope Cruz. It’s his first movie since appearing in the little seen 2023 French-language film “Jeanne du Barry,” in which he played King Louis XV.
Recently released photos from the new production show a gray-haired and bearded Depp who appears to be acting his age, 61. That pivot could be a smart way to reinvent himself.
“Depp won the court of public opinion (in his case against Heard), but the bigger issue is simply whether he is still the big star he once was,” Boyd says of “Pirates of the Caribbean” icon. “Does he mean the same to audiences now that he did in the past?”
Depp has said before he wasn’t interested in doing a sixth installment in Disney’s lucrative “Pirates” franchise, but “he’s still the face of that ride at Disney, and I bet he would totally do another if offered,” says Jones. The response to “Day Drinker” could sink or revive those piratical conversations.
For some Hollywood experts, the surest comeback bet is … Will Smith
And then there’s Smith. The talented rapper-turned-TV-star-turned-Oscar-winner (a title he earned on the very night he struck Chris Rock for making a joke about his wife’s shaved head, a result of her alopecia) is planning to bombard his fans with fare soon.
Upcoming Smith films in various phases of development are a remake of the 1987 John Candy and Steve Martin comedy “Planes, Trains, and Automobiles,” co-starring Kevin Hart; a post-apocalyptic action thriller sequel “I Am Legend 2” with Michael B. Jordan; and a super hero redemption sequel “Hancock 2.”
With these movies, Smith has a chance to recement his bond with audiences, which didn’t happen with two post-Slap movies, “Emancipation,” about a runaway slave, and the popular but critically panned “Bad Boys 4,” as well as a new album, “Based on a True Story.”
But for those reading Hollywood tea leaves, Smith has the greatest chance of mounting a strong industry comeback.
“He was a gigantic star and people really aren’t that angry about that slap and some saw it as noble even,” says Schulman. “Plus, we all saw it happen, it was no secret. There was no mystery.”
For Boyd, “it comes down to who he slapped, which was Chris Rock, a comedian, and comedians often say things that people don’t like.”
Jones agrees on Smith’s good odds, adding what was most shocking about the slap was that it was done “by someone who comes across to us as such a nice guy” through roles such as TV’s “The Fresh Prince of Bel-Air.”
For her, what Smith did was more a direct result of the pressure-cooker spotlight and “all-out mania” of Hollywood’s awards season.
Smith is “fundamentally a kingmaker who can likely still make billions in profits for someone,” she says. “Plus, let’s remember, he slapped someone across the face, he didn’t kill someone.”
We’ll give Boyd the final word here. And the final word is: cash.
“In any performance based industry, and this comes up in sports a lot, if someone is very good at what they do and they have a strong following and someone can profit off those talents, those things will be factored into consideration when it comes to giving people another chance,” he says.
“Anyone looking at talent that is trying to come back from something is thinking: ‘Is the risk of taking on this person bigger than the profit we stand to make?’ You figure that out, and go from there.”
