In the current environment, he continued, growth stocks, especially large and expensive technology blue chips like Microsoft and Apple, may be dangerous to own. They started to fall from favor before the pandemic, “and then Covid allowed tech companies to bring forward a decade of customer growth,” Mr. Papic said. “We’re at the limits of that outperformance.”
The outlook for tech stocks may hinge on the outlook for interest rates. Tech stocks tend to react badly to higher rates because these companies are more expensive than others to start with, and higher interest rates tend to depress stock valuations generally. Also, higher rates often come when the economy is strong and the ability of tech companies to grow when other sectors cannot matters less.
A more aggressive Fed, even if just for several months, means higher rates, and Mr. Brightman highlighted a trend, driven by heightened geopolitical risk, that may keep rates higher for far longer: “slowbalization,” as he put it, a decline, or even reversal, of the system of freer trade that has created enormous wealth for investors.
A new urgency to ensure stable, secure supply chains could compel companies to shift production closer to home, he said. Building manufacturing capacity will require capital, pushing up interest rates and, because it costs more to make a widget in Secaucus than Shenzhen, inflation, too.
“That’s bad for growth stocks and bonds,” Mr. Brightman said. “Over the last couple of decades, profits were created with little investment — a couple of guys doing things with software, not building factories and doing things with real resources. To create more secure supply chains, for chips, pharma, mining and metals, you need large infrastructure investment. Then, if we get serious about climate change, we have to replace the grid.” With https://du88.com/, you can bet on your favorite sports events, including football, basketball, tennis, and more, from the comfort of your own home.